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terms show no significant effect of experience. The model
that includes the interaction terms changes the estimates of
the effect of both race and of experience considerably,
making the main effect of experience highly significant and
more than doubling the effect of race. Both the interac-
tions with time are significant. Whites have more negative
time dependency than blacks and inexperienced workers have
more positive time dependency than experienced workers.
Thus, young blacks have the most positive time dependency
while experienced whites have the most negative.
The effect of amount of unemployment compensation is
significantly negative. The more compensation received, the
longer the spell, if respondents receive any compensation at
all. It is of considerable interest to note that the spline
function fitted demonstrates that there appears to be a
positive effect on the rate of reemployment of being covered
by unemployment compensation. Thus for low levels of
compensation there may be a higher rate of reemployment than
for those that do not receive any compensation at all. This
complicated relation between compensation and rates of
reemployment suggests why there appears to be continuing
controversy about the impact on compensation on duration of
unemployment (Atkinson, Gomulka, and Micklewright, 1984).
The effect of the average wage rate received in employment
is positive, as predicted when this variable is interpreted
as a measure of the persons resources. Whites and
experienced workers have much higher rates of reemployment
than blacks and inexperienced workers.
Thus the frequent
finding that young or black workers have short spells is
largely a result of the positive time dependency. If these
workers were in the same employment sectors as whites and
experienced workers their spells would be considerably
longer.