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employment are such that new hires tend to take place only
at the bottom levels of job ladders because of the need to
maintain promotion schedules and training arrangements. The
unemployed from the closed sector tend to have firm specific
skills and experiences that are less employable in other
firms. Thus as the chances for recall diminishes, the rate
of reemployment should also decrease.
The negative time dependence in closed employment sectors
may be argued to be eventually changed by a shift into the
open employment sector and search in a competitive labor
market. The prediction then should be that the positive time
dependency eventually becomes positive as the rate of
reemployment also becomes dependent on individual charac¬
teristics.
It is hypothesized that there are sources of both positive
and negative true time dependency that should be
identifiable by labor market structures. However, there
will also be unmeasured heterogeneity that would show up as
negative time dependency regardless of the labor market
structure the individual is exposed to. The predicted
differences therefore may only show up as more or less
negative time dependency.
These hypotheses are tested below using data on employment
spells from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID)° In
the present analysis no direct measures of labor market
structures are introduced. Such measures relying on occupa¬
tional and industry variables are being constructed in
current research. Here, I shall rely instead on the indi-
vidual characteristics of race and labor force experience as
indicators of labor market experience, assuming that blacks
and inexperienced individuals are more likely to be located
in the open employment sector. Similar information on
whether or not the individual returned to the same employer